9/18/2024
WT Staff
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September 18, 2024 1110 am EDT
Revisiting NOAA Storm Forecast 2024
A quiet weather day, according to the National Weather Service, no hazardous weather outlooks in effect for Ohio. In a moment of weather calm, we check in with the National Hurricane Center to see what may be brewing off shore.
Tropical Depression Gordon away off in the Atlantic no longer has a trackable center, formerly Tropical Storm disintegrating to an unorganized group of unsettled weather moving north-northeast and 3.5 mph. Gordon presents no risk to land, though conditions into the weekend could yet bring Gordon back to Tropical Storm status. By midweek, the National Hurricane Center reports no risk to land.
Not to be caught off-guard, the named storms are not the only ones to watch. An unnamed storm, "Potential Tropical Storm Eight" managed to deliver twenty-plus inches of rain on North Carolina Monday, trapping dozens of people and causing enormous flooding damage. By any name, a storm is a storm, localized heavy rain can produce flash flooding.
From the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) storm season projection article of May 23, 2024, NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, 85% probability of above average storm season with 17 to 25 named storms, 4 to 7 of these being hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Here we are, just past the midpoint of storm season 2024, we are tracking the 7th named storm, Gordon, still on the radar active in the Atlantic. The latter half of the season is expected to bring on the heavy storm activity. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks says, "Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today. Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."
Streamflow Situation from the USGS network of streamflow gauges in Ohio
Extreme drought remains on the Shade River watershed in Meigs County midweek. Adjacent Hocking River watershed remains in severe drought through Hocking and Athens Counties. Downstream Ohio River tributary Raccoon-Symmes and the Scioto basin's Tygarts watersheds remain in moderate drought, this rating covering Lawrence to east Scioto County. North of the drainage divide, severe drought persists through Lower Maumee River watershed with moderate drought in adjacent Auglaize and Tiffin River watersheds. Blanchard, Sandusky, Huron-Vermilion, Cuyahoga, Grand, Ashtabula-Chagrin Rivers watersheds remain below normal. As of this report, the Upper Scioto, Upper and Lower Great Miami River remain unrated.
WT HAB Tracker from the satellite monitoring program of the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science(NCCOS), Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN) and State sources where available
Lake Erie west basin
The latest picture from NCCOS satellite program snapped Sep 17 at wind speed 10.4 mph, a partially cloud obscured view of the west basin Lake Erie. Maumee Bay State Park appears lower concentration over the prior 24 hour period, 1 million cells per ml. Sandusky Bay Aphanizomenon bloom has expanded into the southwest corner at 1 million cells per ml. Widespread HAB on the open water side of Sandusky's Cedar Point runs 200 to 300 thousand cells per ml, extending past Kelleys Island up to and wrapping around Pelee Island. See the NCCOS image here.
Find the US EPA national beach advisories dashboard, here.
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