  
8/16/2026
WT Staff
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August 16, 2026 618 pm EDT with addendum Aug 19 2026 408 pm EDT
Decades of drought and over-consumption have reduced Colorado River reservoirs to critically low levels, threatening power and water supplies for 40 million people. As nature challenges legal entitlements to fresh water in the USA, experts are calling for a multi-disciplinary management strategy to recover and sustain the ecological functions of the continent's rivers
"Water is life. Water is the giver and sustainer of life. Water is a sacred and spiritual element to the Tribes of the Partnership…. The Partnership will embrace and own the stewardship of the Colorado River and lead from a spiritual mandate to ensure that this sacred water will always be protected, available and sufficient."
– Ten Tribes Partnership Vision Statement
The Upper Basin Rocky Mountains of Wyoming and Colorado are first to capture rainfall and snow melt supplying the Colorado River headwaters. In years of water plenty, the annual snowpack in the mountains started the Upper Basin creeks and tributaries running, adequately providing for seven States and 30 Tribes downstream. Historically and legally, water rights-holders have been entitled to take this water for beneficial use inside the basin, or to divert for beneficial use outside the natural river basin, according to seniority of the taker's claim.
With an average of 20 inches total rainfall in the entire basin each year, the arid Lower basin does not add much more to the total river volume. An estimated 800,000 acre-feet bubble in from springs through the Grand Canyon. By the time the Colorado reaches the US - Mexico border at Yuma, AZ, held back by the Morelos Dam, another 1.5 million acre feet are required to satisfy the 1944 Water Treaty with Mexico. Notwithstanding awful water quality at this point, the BoR water release records from 1971 to 2021 show the deliveries have been made each year. This water does not reach the delta, let alone the outlet in the Sea of Cortez/Gulf of California.
Willingness to share life-sustaining freshwater resources during periods of scarcity is a reflection of human civility. Where clean water is taken as a human right, conservation is rewarded during periods of water scarcity. In times of extended and severe drought, when water storage is depleted, domestic use is prioritized, ensuring essential hydration and hygiene for all. Good neighbors willingly curtail non-essential water use. Where watersheds and waterways are managed for sustainability, storage is adjusted to ease the impact of floods and drought, with minimum volume and flow maintained as a management priority. In this way, continuity of the river's ecological functions is assured as a vital component of the earth's HVAC system.
What we see today in the Colorado River basin is quite another matter. Since 2000, annual rainfall and snowpack in the Upper Basin has averaged 20% below the prior hundred years' precipitation average. Lake Powell and Lake Mead, among the largest reservoirs in the country, have dropped to record low levels this summer. Just 30 to 40 feet of water, respectively, remains above minimum power pool, the point at which power generation fails completely. With so little water remaining in Lake Mead, Hoover Dam's 4 billion kwH powering Nevada, California and Arizona is already falling. After two and a half decades of severe drought, unchecked water-taking and diversion has brought about a cataclysmic reckoning: forty million Americans may soon be out of power and water.
A century ago, the "wild west" was settling down. Western states passed laws to manage urban and industrial development, including the governance of fresh water. The Colorado River Compact established basic ground rules in 1922, defining Upper and Lower basins from the US portion of a 1450 mile long river, not including the section traversing Mexico. The dividing line separating Upper and Lower basins was placed at Lee's Ferry, AZ, with 2 million people situated upstream in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico. The Lower Basin states were more populous even then, 3.8 million people in Nevada, Arizona and California.
US Bureau of Reclamation - Colorado River Basin with Dams and Diversions
The 1922 Compact was the first of many legal structures comprising the Law of the River, according to US federal Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (BoR). It is the federal BoR that owns and operates the dams and manages the water releases. The decisions to open the head gates and spillways falls to the US federal government, based on BoR interpretation of applicable laws.
The earliest of the Colorado River laws determined Upper and Lower basin allocations as a fixed annual volume, based on the flow of the day, that inventory taken in a period of water plenty. Fifteen million acre-feet was presumed available in perpetuity, to be shared in equal parts between the Upper and Lower basins. With the benefit of hindsight, it is apparent that dividing a water body on a presumption of a consistent annual flow volume was not the best sustainable management plan.
The Upper and Lower basins determine how their respective 7.5 million acre-feet are divided among their stakeholder States and Tribes. Water takers including cities, towns and settlements for domestic potable water, private enterprise and industrial users, excluding agriculture use approximately 18% of the water, according to Environment and Energy Study Institute (EESI). Agricultural irrigation accounts for 52%, the single largest use of Colorado River water. Nature uses 19% for trees and natural vegetation, with evaporation claiming 11%, maintaining the hydrological cycle.
Upper v Lower: interpretations and priorities
Separate agreements define how the Colorado River allocations are utilized by the states within each basin. Differences are notable: the Upper Basin divides water between states by percentages of available supply; the Lower Basin maintains allocations by fixed volume acre-feet, regardless of available supply. In the Upper Basin, evaporation loss (approximately 11%) reduces deliveries to the users; in the Lower basin, the states receive their allotted volume with no adjustment for evaporation loss. In the Upper Basin, the 7.5 million acre-feet has not been fully utilized. Unused surplus held in Lake Powell does not remain in the bank for future use by the Upper Basin states, rather the US BoR releases the Upper Basin's unused allocation downstream, where the Lower Basin has become accustomed to completely using it up.
The Upper Colorado River Commissioner allocates annual water deliveries between Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Tribal water rights-holders, based on the water available each year. Each spring, Upper Basin water rights holders are informed of their deliveries for the year. EESI reported the Ute Mountain Tribe of Colorado took a 90% cut in 2021 water deliveries, forcing a mass layoff of staff and fallowing of 6000 acres of farm land.
In the Upper Basin, the 11% lost to the natural process of evaporation reduces water deliveries deemed available to the rights-holders. In the Lower Basin, water deliveries have been maintained on the fixed schedule determined 100 years ago. The fixed volume delivery schedule is received as an entitlement to the first taker, protected by law as a matter of private property. The Lower Basin's senior water takers have maintained their full entitlements by receiving the Upper Basin's unused portion from the BoR, and in recent years, drawing down the water stored in the reservoirs.
Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) have been discussed in the Lower Basin since at least 2019. The DCP's are voluntary arrangements to reduce water use, triggered by the level in the storage reservoirs. That level has been reached this summer. Documents exchanged between the major Lower Basin water users in 2019 show the senior appropriations, seven irrigation districts of the south-central valleys offering voluntary conservation measures of 3%. The subordinate takers in the Lower Basin include Metropolitan Water District serving Los Angeles and southern California negotiating with the farmers on behalf of 20 million people that need potable water.
The principle that flies in the face of water conservation
The US BoR details the Law of the River, including this note:
In 1979, the Supreme Court issued a Supplemental Decree which addressed present perfected rights referred to in the Colorado River Compact and in the Boulder Canyon Project Act. These rights are entitlements essentially established under state law, and have priority over later contract entitlements.
Two realms collide: the Law of the River's fixed volume definition and water use as entitlement over against the Law of Nature, where annual water deliveries are far from fixed.
Prior Appropriation law holds that senior water takers (the agricultural irrigation districts in south-central CA) cannot be forced to reduce their allotment of Colorado River water, regardless of the severity of drought. The senior water takers are entitled to receive their full allotment before subordinate water takers (including cities in CA and AZ) can take water at all. There is no provision for higher priority of beneficial use here. Interesting to note, the agricultural irrigation district at Yuma, AZ grows a significant portion of the winter vegetables for the entire country. Water for growing human food is not prioritized. The senior water takers can go on producing feed for racing camels under the current water laws, before AZ farmers can grow salad for Americans.
Use it or lose it
With Upper Basin annual water use shortages averaging 1.3 million acre-feet for twenty years, one might expect to find Lake Powell at full pool, 24.322 million acre-feet maintaining full capacity power generation at Glen Canyon Dam. Alas, not the case. Lake Powell is down almost four feet in the last month, currently 21.7 % full, 30.25 ft above power pool and 150 feet above dead pool. The BoR owns the dam, employs the operators at the head gates. Releases from Lake Powell are made according to BoR management, which may be influenced by the political powers downstream. Consider, Colorado has 8 representatives in Congress, California has 54.
Prior Appropriation law is essentially a deterrent to conservative management of water. The law favors the senior taker, not the particular beneficial use. For those senior takers, farmers in California's south-central irrigation districts, they are incentivized to grow the most valuable crop, and sell to the highest bidder. The right of the senior takers in effect, supports Colorado River water being used inefficiently. As it turns out, a lot of the irrigated acres are in alfalfa, a high water demand crop not naturally suited for such arid conditions. A significant portion of the first priority water use supports production of feed crops for animals, and a good portion of that is exported to the Middle East and China.
US water laws promote senior takers using their entire allocation each year, whether they need it or not. After all, water is valuable, it will be fully utilized wastefully or inefficiently, if it cannot be sold to a taker with a subordinate claim. In this scenario, there is no incentive for farmers to improve their water use efficiency. There is no incentive to improve soil health to infiltrate and store more moisture, reducing the water volume needed to maintain the same output of crops, as are done in the dry farming regions.
Better agricultural management practices have been tried and tested in regions without irrigation. These water use efficiency techniques include selection of drought tolerant crops, seeding of multi-species forage, companion crops and cover crops improves soil health and conserves moisture. The application of mulch in row crops can reduce moisture loss from the soil. The adoption of efficient irrigation works and smart sensor technology reduces water usage per unit of mass produced. In spite of all these options to reduce waste of water, the law still supports excess use of scarce water resources.
This legal framework of Prior Appropriation determines clean water as entitlement by seniority, over against clean water as a human right. Managing out of this dire water shortage requires some different thinking than the management that got us here.
Climate considerations to water sufficiency
The law may define the priority for water deliveries, however, nature ultimately determines the supply. As the actual flow rate has been less than the annual allocation for many years in a row, closer to 12 million acre-feet per year, management is finally catching up with reality. Regardless of the legal framework and what may be supported in court, all Colorado River water takers understand cooperation is necessary to ensure the sustainability of the power and water supply. No matter who has the right to fill their bucket first, it does no good for senior takers to force the reservoirs to minimum power pool, cutting off the power grid, or dropping water levels to dead pool, the point at which water no longer discharges downstream of the dams. As of now. Lake Mead is 145.5 feet above dead pool, the end of the line for the lower basin.
The last change of administration in the White House brought steep staffing and budgetary cuts to the agencies responsible for Colorado River Management with the current arrangement expired. Lower Basin States of California, Arizona and Nevada have proposed cuts to their water use, 18 to 20%. The Upper basins has not officially responded. In any case, the federal government has the last word on Colorado River management. With the storage reservoirs all but used up, annual consumption cuts must follow what nature delivers. The US BoR issued a decree in late July that will be enforced by the end of this year unless the Upper and Lower basins reach a better solution. Based on the adjusted annual flow, the BoR expects a 3 million acre-foot cut from the current consumption.
Analysts from both sides of the basin, academics and national think-tanks have contributed commentary around this issue. Some say the cuts should be taken from both sides of the basin. Former lead negotiator for the Colorado River Upper Basin states in 2000, Greg Walcher explains how the water resource inevitably ends up going to those with the most representation in US Congress, regardless of any real-time supply constraints. For the last ten years, the State of Colorado has adjusted to the conditions by voluntarily cutting 1 million acre-feet per year below allocation. During this same window, California continued to take its full annual allocation of 4.4 million acre-feet, an absolute value established in the Colorado River Compact of 1922. Not only has California declined to trim water draws in light of 20% less supply through the system, the most populous state continues to take the surplus water to which it is accustomed, about 11 million acre-feet above allocation in the last decade. Walcher said: "I don't think it's ignorance. I don't even think it's arrogance. I understand the entitlement mentality." This is a state with 54 Congressional Members compared to Colorado's 8 members, and Wyoming's one member. The federal BoR lets water go from storage to satisfy California, no matter what the water storage situation has been. California was asked to quantify their water rights going forward, and this is not an easy task.
WT notes, the largest Colorado River water user, California, does not treat their own water resources in an unsustainable manner. Rivers originating in northern California's Sierra Nevadas are managed sustainably by California Water Boards. Absolute deference appears to fall on the remote USGS flow sensors and established minimum water levels. The Scott and Shasta Rivers, as an example, are carefully managed with notifications to water users demanding an immediate end of withdrawals the moment water levels fall below the minimum threshold for a given month. Once that stop notice is given, all water users are treated as one, there are no draws allowed. Period. Why is it different in the Colorado River case?
Allocation of water as a human right
When water management is approached from the supply side, with allocations ensuring maintenance of the river's elemental functions, supporting the continental hydrological system, we see a different decision making matrix. Sustainable water management considers climate data, trends in the mean annual flow, changes in storage levels, precipitation and evapo-transpiration trends through the entire basin, from headwaters to deltas and outlets. When water management is constrained by the natural order and the water levels required to maintain a functioning continental hydrologic cycle, the water rights holders are the ones to adjust, mitigate and adapt to the changing conditions.
Human populations have certainly expanded in the west. The Upper Basin today supports 12.2 million people, the Lower Basin has topped 50 million. When water is taken as a human right for all, rather than private property for the first taker, the management decisions will change. When the total volume available for extraction prioritizes domestic use before industrial use, and domestic food production ahead of production for export, we will see the Law of Nature take effect. Water rights holders, including every person, no matter how small, will be encouraged to share. Tribes, municipalities and industry will all be inclined toward water conservation, elimination of waste, greater care around contaminants and pollution. When water allocations are based on available clean and fresh supply, everyone will adjust their water use to fit.
Addendum, Aug 19 2026 408 pm EDT
The health and function of Colorado River's riparian zone, the band of ecology where forest/natural vegetation meets water, has been in decline for decades. Thirsty invasive trees have been taking over the riparian zone, increasing natural water withdrawals from the upper Colorado River. Overgrowth of tamarisk, also known as saltcedar trees, has increased the percentage of water withdrawals by natural vegetation, currently estimated at 19%. These natural withdrawals exceed water use by urban centers for domestic and industrial purposes, at 18%. Evaporation from the relatively large surface areas of the reservoirs takes another 11% from the river. Considering the annual flow was over-estimated for the 1922 Colorado River Compact, with all of it allocated for human purposes, it is no surprise the situation we see this river in today.
State of the Rockies Report Card, 2012
In the report Environment and Ecology of the Colorado River Basin, Natalie Triedman found, "Human needs have historically taken precedence over environmental concerns when managing Colorado River water and other natural resources." To this day, no specific water quantity on the main stem of the Colorado River is designated for environmental needs. The threat of endangered species and degraded water quality are both amplified by the fact that we do not allocate a significant quantity of water exclusively for environmental needs."
With a vision of sustainable water use for the Colorado Basin in the next century, we consider the need for maintenance of a minimum water volume to be maintained in the river channel at all times, in the manner of which California Water Boards treats state waterways. Such management is in keeping with the Ten Tribes Partnership vision, cited at the beginning of this article.
The Colorado River is not the only water source that has been overdrawn in the most populated regions of the basin. "Excessive groundwater pumping" in California is credited with the collapse of surface elevation, "more than 1 foot/year of subsidence", recorded by the US Geological Survey. This issue dates back to the early 1900's. As major aquifers have not recovered, groundwater is not a viable alternative water source.
Is desalination of seawater a viable alternative water source?
Land-locked states of the Upper Colorado basin point to 840 miles of Pacific Ocean shoreline available to the State of California as a potential alternative to satisfy the most populous state's water appetite. Desalination is a key part of the California Water Boards strategy. Twelve desal plants were operating in 2019 with a number of new projects planned to be operating by 2040. The new facility at Antioch has been producing fresh water since 2024. Saltwater incursion in the San Joaquin River has to be treated, which does nothing to relieve demand on the Colorado River.
In 2012, San Diego County Water Authority contracted a private water infrastructure company to design, build and operate a desalination plant. The Claude "Bud" Lewis Carlsbad plant is the largest desal plant in the USA, yet produces just 10% of San Diego County's water. The original water purchase agreement and rates remain in force until 2042, at which time the SDCWA can purchase the facilities and take over operations. According to sources in our Mexico Bureau, San Diego County presently has surplus water for sale on the open market.
OceanWell is a private enterprise, California startup intent on "adding 1 million acre-feet of fresh water to global supply within a decade". The proprietary filtration technology is deployed at depth, where the weight of seawater above pushes saline water through the filters. According to OceanWell, the produced brine stream is less concentrated than that of traditional thermal desalination processes, and can be safely released to the ocean. A number of modules can be connected to meet demand, with produced fresh water pumped to the surface treatment plant.
Large scale desalination is a capital intensive, energy-intense process producing a relatively large toxic wastewater stream relative to potable water production. American Public Media (APM) Research Lab reports desalination is not popular with environmental advocates. Technology is advancing, engineered solutions avoid trapping aquatic creatures on the screens of raw water intake pipes. Reverse and forward osmosis filtration are showing promise for reducing energy demand compared to traditional thermal desalination, though still not at the scale required to replace 3 million acre feet of Colorado River water.
With more than 17,000 plants operating around the world and 200 of these in the USA, the US Department of Energy takes the position that expansion of desal plants is not ideal. DoE Desalination Basics fact sheet states "energy costs, brine disposal, regulatory hurdles, and the mismatch with agricultural demand keep it from becoming a statewide replacement for Colorado River water."
Can agriculture irrigation demand be reduced by improving water use efficiency?
Washington, DC's Environment and Energy Study Institute (EESI) hosted a panel of Colorado River experts to discuss the river's management in Feb 2025. From the presentations and discussion came a call for more participation from the agriculture sector, currently using 52% of annual Colorado River withdrawals.
Agriculture practices around the world are shifting. Global disruptions in the supply of synthetic fertilizers and chemical pesticide products have increased uncertainty and tilted the cost of conventional row crop production to such a degree that more producers are seeking change. Formerly a niche occupied by small holdings, regenerative agriculture (RA), also known as biological, low-input or natural production is taking over the industry. As mass surface area agricultural soil of the world transitions to biologically-driven soil function and fertility, the higher nutrient density of the crops is coming with lower cost, improving profitability of the farms. As the world's agricultural soil is regenerated, teeming with beneficial life forms, crops can be grown without biocides. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global Soil Strategy of 2019 proposed, mass surface area of the global soil resource is storing atmospheric carbon, resuming its vital role as the carbon filter of surface and groundwater supplies.
In the paper Exploring the Critical Role of Water in Regenerative Agriculture; Building Promises and Avoiding Pitfalls, B. Langford and S. Orr state, "At the farm scale, regenerated (RA) soils will absorb and retain more water in the soil profile which allows crops to productively transpire longer without rainfall or irrigation. At the catchment scale, via higher soil infiltration rates, RA soils will ameliorate rainfall-runoff hydrology, reduce runoff peak flows and erosion, and allow more water to pass through to groundwater."
Farm field by field, the selection of drought-resistant varieties and companion planting with a diversity of functional plant groups is key to water use efficiency in agriculture. As the practice shifts in deference to natural supply constraints, we may see global food production become less detrimental to the environment, rather harmonizing with basic planetary functions.
Just enough of the global consumer market has learned to demand higher nutritional value products grown without harmful substances. In May this year, 40 major consumer packaged goods manufacturers signed a joint declaration of intent to source ingredients grown in regenerated soil. The Sustainable Agriculture Initiative Platform (SAI Platform) "is a global, non-profit organisation leading the food and drink industry's transition to regenerative agriculture and sustainable food production systems".
With more than 190 members spanning the value chain, from farmers to retailers, and strategic partners, from academia to NGOs, SAI Platform plays a vital role in convening stakeholders and facilitating the meaningful dialogue required to transform the global food and beverage industry to source and produce more sustainably. This declaration has secured the ongoing transition of millions of acres of cropland in the USA, indicating a simultaneous positive impact on freshwater demand and supply.
Forestry and natural waterways
US Department of Agriculture manages the US National Forest Service, from whence 20% of the nation's drinking water sources originate. National Forest Management has within its mandate, a necessary focus on the protection of watersheds: from potential industrial impacts, from pollution and degradation. Water managers may likewise benefit from collaboration with forestry management, as the particular species of trees planted and harvested impacts the volume of natural water withdrawals, occurring on the similar scale as water withdrawals for human use.
Colorado State Forest Service defines the intersection of land and water as follows:
Water is the key component of the environment, and the land that surrounds that water is the structure around that environment. Together, land and water make a watershed a whole system.
A "watershed" is the term used to describe an area of land united by the flow of water, nutrients, pollutants and sediments, moving downslope to the lowest point, through a network of drainage pathways that may be underground or on the surface. National forests yield large portions of the total water in these river systems. The potential is great for forests to positively and negatively influence the transport of water.
Well managed forests stabilize soils and reduce the fuel load for wildfires. When forest managers align with water managers, the results may just be sustainable. And sustainable is what we need now.
See WT exclusive article with Dr. Peter Leavitt, "The power of a continental approach to source water protection", here.
See EPA advises rural householders to seek water quality assurances directly from data center developers. For all the water-positive talk from Big Tech companies, the public is pushing back for the right to clean water in America, here.
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